🦅Another Jalen Hurts Win Leads NFL Week 10 Probabilities

It's Saturday morning and that means it's time to take a spin through the most probable and least probable events in the world of sports! We did it, we survived another week.And it's been a hell of a week here at Probly with a ton of work on my plate and a lot to report on in our Probly development.Today you'll get the first video of our home screen functionality as well as a run through NFL Week 10 and everything else of note around sports. Let's get right into it all in your Probly email for November 12th, 2022. - @ChrisSpags

• 🎥 First Probly home screen video

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 10's games

• 👑 The most probable bets from college football, the NBA, and around the world!

Last week you saw our first screenshots of our UX development, this week a slightly different video version of our in-development home screen! There will be some enhancements made (including the ability to swipe left or right on any bet to actually place it on a legal sportsbook) but this is structurally pretty close to what you can expect of our final product. We have two more weeks in development sprints until we try to connect all these things and more to a public-facing server so it all is anxiety-inducingly moving along!What you'll hopefully see above: Our market-defining true probability data, our proprietary PROBLY Score which tells you the expected value of the best bet available on a legal sportsbook, and the ability to interact via comments or by uploading your own video along with our bet info. It's social, it's data-driven, it's a lot of functionality and power ported over to an incredibly simple product that you can mess with for free to compete nightly or to make actual bets.And it gets even better: We actually bought Probly.com this week from a domain broker and that will be the new front-facing home of all of this. It's all coming together in a way that makes me and our CTO Edgar feel a ton of pressure to see it through to the finish line but I am unbelievably excited about how this has all developed without any external funding thus far. More to come in the next few weeks so tell a friend to get on our list!

Patrick Mahomes squeaked out a win last week as the Most Probable, this week is Jalen Hurts' time not to drop the bag on Monday Night Football. Hurts and the Eagles lead the week with an 80.6% probability to win against the Commanders. The Eagles come through in almost every spot this season so even if Heinicke Magic pushes the spread, it feels like you can safely store away another Eagles win.A Kansas City win versus Jacksonville is #2 on the week with a 78.2% probability (as well as a 71.8% probability they lead after the 1st half at the fifth most probable). You also have the Eagles 1st half moneyline in third place for the week with a 75.8% probability. Rounding out the top five for NFL Week 10 is a Niners win at a 72.7% probability on Sunday Night Football against the Chargers.

Here's everything else in NFL Week 10:

• Seattle @ Tampa Bay - It's an early start in Deutschland for this one which is led by a lot of Bucs alternate spreads. Bucs +3 (1st half) leads the way with a 67.5% probability, followed by Bucs +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 65.3% probability and Bucs +2.5 (1st half) at 62.7% probability. Overall it seems like a lack of confidence in the Bucs being able to pick up a win but a decent likelihood the Bucs keep it competitive, even if they steal defeat from the jaws of victory once again.

• Minnesota @ Buffalo - The Bills are much less likely after their market-defying loss to the Jets last week and a subsequent elbow injury for Josh Allen. Vikings +10.5 is the most probable bet at a 73.5% probability. Bills +3.5 is second most likely at a 71.7% probability. There's an interesting 71.6% probability that the game goes under 50.5 points in third. It seems like a more competitive game is expected with the high potential for Case Keenum to start the game with a good amount of production overall (and a not-insignificant 28.4% chance the game scores more than 50.5 points, worth noting for fantasy football slates).

• Houston @ NY Giants - Giants +0.5 (1st quarter) is the most probable bet in the game at a 70.7% probability. Behind it is a Giants win at a 67.6% probability and Giants -2 at a 64.2% probability. These lines seemingly indicate a good chance the Giants maintain control throughout the game, which makes likely uber-popular DraftKings play Dameon Pierce seem like a bit of a mistake. Pay up and play Saquon Barkley instead.

• Cleveland @ Miami - Dolphins +3.5 is the most probable bet at a 72.8% probability, followed by the game scoring under 55.5 points at a 67.6% probability. That's a high bar to have as the most probable alternate spread, and also reflects a seriously interesting 32.4% probability the game does score more than over 55.5 points. A competitive game with a 1 in 3 chance to become an explosion of points feels worth noting for DFS and prop bets.

• Jacksonville @ Kansas City - A Kansas City win leads the way at a 78.2% probability, as noted above, while Jags +17.5 is at second place with a 73.5% probability. There's only a 72.2% chance this game scores over 43.5 points so it seems like treating this like a Chiefs boat race seems like the wise move. The Jags producing fantasy-wise trailing from behind is a viable approach but it may be a lot to ask to expect them to keep it competitive.

• Detroit @ Chicago - Another key game for fantasy football this weekend and there isn't a lot to read into from the top markets around the world. There's a 71.7% chance the game scores over 40.5 points, indicating some chance of a letdown in scoring if the noteworthy likelihood of the inverse occurs. Bears +3 (1st half) is second most probable at a 67.7% probability, followed by Bears +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 63.8% probability and Bears +2.5 (1st half) at a 63% probability. I think the game has the potential to product points but the markets don't provide massive confidence.

• Denver @ Tennessee - The game scoring under 45.5 points leads the way with a 68.8% probability, followed by Titans +3 (1st half) at a 68.4% probability and Titans +3.5 for the game at a 67.6% probability. A plodder of a game seems to be the market's expectation, not surprising given the primary over/under coming down to 38 points during the week.

• New Orleans @ Pittsburgh - Under 47.5 points for the game is the second most probable event at a 71.8% probability, but the inverse seems noteworthy given the primary markets' 40 point over/under. Combine that with the most likely outcome of Steelers +7.5 at a 72.2% probability and there could be some merit to fantasy analysts touting Steelers and Saints game stacks. There's only a 65% probability the game scores over 34.5 points to I would temper expectations accordingly but it could really hit in the scenarios it does hit.

• Indianapolis @ Las Vegas - Raiders +3.5 is the game's most probable outcome at a 75.1% probability, followed by a 72% probability the game scores under 49.5 points. There could be some scoring here in a competitive game, as evidenced by Colts +10.5 in third at a 67.6% probability. I don't have a ton of confidence in this one with the variance a new head coach, midseason, with no experience for Indianapolis can bring but on paper it feels like an interesting game to target.

• Arizona @ LA Rams - Arizona +7.5 leads the way with a 69.8% probability followed by a 66.9% probability the game scores over 34.5 points. With Matthew Stafford questionable due to a concussion and the Cardinals underperforming at every turn, it may be wiser to avoid this game and the ugliness it potentially presents.

• Dallas @ Green Bay - Cowboys +3.5 leads the way at a 74.1% probability, followed by over 36.5 points at a 73.7% probability. Green Bay +10.5 comes in third at a 70.1% probability. It seems like the markets expect the Cowboys to win relatively effortlessly with Aaron Rodgers flustered by far lesser defenses of late.

• LA Chargers @ San Francisco - We discussed that 72.7% probability for a Niners win in the beginning of this write-up as one of the most probable outcomes of the week. There's also a strong 71.9% chance of Chargers +14.5, which seems noteworthy for the inverse outcome of an outright Niners stomping. It could really be an implosion for Justin Herbert with injuries to some of his top weapons and the Niners' ability to shut down the Austin Ekeler safety valve even if they make it look competitive on paper by the end.

• Washington @ Philadelphia - An Eagles win leads the way with that top-of-the-week 80.6% probability followed by a dominance narrative of Eagles moneyline (1st half) at a 75.8% probability and Eagles moneyline (1st quarter) at a 71.5% probability. We've seen these sometimes turned upside down lately in the early parts of games but typically the clearly defined market favorite wins by the end.

I know we've all marked the 2023 FIBA World Cup on our calendars but you may not know that qualifiers in the Asian region are currently going on! And that includes our most likely event of the week, a Lebanon win over India with a 96.5% probability! It'll be on during the 1PM NFL games tomorrow at a 2PM tipoff so, you know, get a second screen going with whatever channel FIBA's Asian qualifiers is on. There's gotta be one.The rest of the top five: Undefeated Michigan winning in college football against woeful Nebraska at a 96% probability, something called ACS Sepsi SIC winning in Romanian women's hoops at a 95% probability, Virtus Pallacanestro Bologna winning in Italian basketball at a 94.7% probability, and something called Vojvodina 021 Novi Sad that is apparently a Serbian women's basketball team winning at a 94.6% probability. When I've told you we have all the data in the world in our Probly databases, that is NOT a lie.In other college football markets, a Utah win has a 92.2% probability, an Air Force win has a 91.8% probability, a Boise State win has a 90.1% probability, and the top five is closed out with a Tennesseee win at an 89.5% probability.

In the NBA, a Pelicans win vs Houston has a 79.6% probability, a Heat win has a 78.1% probability, and a Celtics win has a 77% probability. 1st half moneylines for the Pelicans and Heat round out the top five for the NBA at a 72.7% probability and 71.3% probability respectively.There's a decent UFC card tonight it seems and it features an Erin Blanchfield win at a 78.8% probability followed by a Weili Zhang win at a 75.1% probability. You then have a Chris Gutierrez win at a 68.5% probability and main eventer Israel Adesanya has a 66.2% probability to win versus Alex Pereira.

One more email in the books right as college football is starting a tale as old as time. As always, please tell a friend or several thousand if you enjoyed this email!I hope you guys got some useful information out of this, about the state of Lebanese basketball if nothing else, and that you like what you see from our first Probly product video! Stay tuned for more and I'll see you guys next week! Good luck!