9️⃣ Niners Lead A Week 18 Of...Near Certainties?

The NFL has one more week in the regular season (including key Saturday games!) before the serious football starts, we have a College Football Championship game with one team a massive favorite, and the NBA has been going nuts with scoring lately. There's a lot of sports to go around.Damar Hamlin's story this week reminded us not just of the forgotten world and humanity beyond sports. But also, frankly, how much one moment of insanity can affect entire leagues and sports (let's just say the decision to cancel didn't exactly work in my favor for the Best Ball tournaments I mentioned last week). That's the life you have wagering on sports-related outcomes. You don't tweet the companies and ask for your money back, as has been en vogue for noob bettors lately. You quietly tilt, dust yourself off, and get back on the grind with the money you can afford to lose. So that is just what we will do today! This is your Probly email for January 7th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 18's games

• 👑 The most probable bets from the College Football Championship, the NBA, and whatever else seems interesting around the world!

Week 18 is one of the most insane in the NFL because it's all tied to who's playing for what, who's announced they won't try, and who won't try even though they've said they would try. It's a mess but the markets will congregate heavily around the sure things that likely will be even more of a sure thing then they have been throughout the NFL scene.This week, that means a lot of Niners, Eagles, and Bengals representation in the top 5 most probable NFL markets. A Niners win over a tanking Cardinals squad leads the way with an 88.7% probability, then an Eagles win over a Giants team that will rest starters with their playoff seed locked in has an 87.3% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st half) at a 79.9% probability, Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 79.2% probability, and a Bengals win over a Ravens team who's mostly locked in and deeply injured has a 77.7% probability. While there's always variance in the NFL — remember the Tom Brady big favorite weeks — this is not the week to expect the unexpected in games where it's high-level starters versus backups and JV players.Let's see what else stands out in NFL Week 18 according to the top performing markets across the world:

• Kansas City @ Las Vegas - It's a Chiefs dominance narrative in a week where Patrick Mahomes needs 430 yards to set the season passing record. A Chiefs win leads with a 77.3% probability followed by Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 71.7% probability, Chiefs -2.5 (1st half) at a 65.3% probability, and a Chiefs moneyline (1st quarter) at a 63% probability as the top four most probable markets in this game. It feels like there's hope for Jarrett Stidham, who wildly overperformed in Week 17, to keep it close early. But the Chiefs should win and put the pressure on the Bills to match to get a neutral site AFC title game as a result of the Bills-Bengals cancellation.

• Tennessee @ Jacksonville - This is a "win and you're in" for both teams to take the AFC South, though Jacksonville could backdoor in even if they lose if New England, Miami, and Pittsburgh lose. But everything seems to indicate a low-scoring boat race. The game scoring over 32.5 points leads the way with a 73.6% probability (which, as you know as a savvy Probly email reader means there's a scary 26.4% chance it goes under that). Then you have Titans +14.5 at a 72.5% probability and a Jags win at a 72% probability. This all screams that the banged up Titans are not ready for primetime here but have the hope of keeping it within a not-embarrasing range.

• Tampa Bay @ Atlanta - Onto our Sunday games and this one has zero juice. The Bucs are locked into the #4 seed and may play starters briefly but call off the dogs fast. As a result, you see the "Falcons in case blow this" bet leading the way with Falcons +3.5 at a 74.3% probability followed by the game scoring under 47.5 points at a 69.7% probability. Weirdly, there's also the over 33.5 points at a 68.9% probability in third. So it seems like the skeleton crew Bucs put up more of a fight than expected but the Falcons should win in the end in a possible momentum builder heading into 2023.

• NY Jets @ Miami - This one is a must-win for Miami, who could make the playoffs if they win and the Bills beat New England. The game scoring under 48.5 points leads the top five for the game with a 79.3% probability followed by Dolphins +3 (1st half) at a 71.7% probability and Dolphins +3.5 for the game at a 71.5% probability. This is not a stunning showing of confidence for a Dolphins win and seems more focused on their potential to blow this one. I'd still lean towards a Dolphins win but I wouldn't put it in cement with them on their third-string QB Skylar Thompson.

• Minnesota @ Chicago - Minnesota needs this win to give themselves a shot to take the #2 seed only to lose it to the Niners in the late window. The game scoring under 51.5 points leads the way at a 74.2% probability, which is a high bar for a game where one side will be QB'd by Nathan Peterman. Bears +14.5 is in second with a 72.9% probability followed by a Vikings win at a 70.5% probability. I've had a pet theory that the Vikings could feed Justin Jefferson early and often to try to set the receiving record with him 194 yards away from breaking Calvin Johnson's record and I think it's possible that happens or the Vikings just annihilate the Bears in the hopes of building confidence after an embarrasing effort vs the Packers.

• Carolina @ New Orleans - Both teams should be tanking here so expect a dud. The game scoring over 32.5 points leads the way with a 74.7% probability which is a low bar reflective of two middling to bad teams putting in a half-assed effort. Saints +3.5 is in second with a 73.4% probability followed by Panthers +10.5 at a 71.4% probability. This mostly tells me the markets have no lead on who will tank harder (with a slight lean towards a Saints win) but it should be a close crawl to the finish line.

• Buffalo @ New England - A Bills win leads the way at a 74.1% probability followed by another low bar alternate line of over 35.5 points at a 71.7% probability. The Bills need this win to force the potential neutral site AFC title game and the Pats need this win to make the playoffs. It seems like the wise move is to expect a defensively-minded Buffalo win (with the faintest chance it could shoot out).

• Baltimore @ Cincinnati - Cincinnati has a chip on their shoulder after being somewhat screwed by the Week 17 cancellation and it looks like all dominance here against a questionably motivated Baltimore team. The aforementioned Bengals win tops the board at a 78.1% probability followed by Bengals moneyline (1st half) at a 73.6% probability and under 48.5 points at a 73% probability. With third-stringer Anthony Brown possibly starting for the Ravens, they may be fully outclassed here by a team on a mission.

• Houston @ Indianapolis - Another tankathon game with an interesting under 45.5 points up top at a 72.8% probability (which again means the inverse 27.2% probability of the over could mean a trash team shootout). Texans +7.5 at a 72.8% probability and Colts +3.5 at a 68.7% probability are also in the top three so I'd say there's a shot this one could be more competitive than it seems and have some potential outlier performances from some trash heap players fantasywise. Zack Moss anyone?

• Cleveland @ Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh would make the playoffs if they win and New England and Miami lose. Prepare for a slog with over 32.5 points leading the way at a 72.3% probability (interesting to note how many alternate spreads are on top here; it seems like there's less certainty in spreads, wins, and losses this week). Browns +7.5 is the #2 option at a 70.3% probability followed by Steelers +3.5 at a 67.8% probability. I've had a gut feeling that Cleveland, playing for nothing here, could play spoiler somehow. While that's not the most likely outcome, it's in the range here.

• NY Giants @ Philadelphia - Starters resting for New York, a bye on the line for Philly..experct the boat race. It's a Philly dominance narrative with an Eagles win at an 88.1% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st half) at a 80.2% probability, and Eagles moneyline (1st quarter) at a 76.3% probability. Nothing in life is a lock..this is a lock.

• Dallas @ Washington - Dallas has the least to play for since an Eagles win locks them into a date with the Bucs. That said, a Dallas win is on top with a 73.6% probability followed by under 48.5 points at a 72.2% probability and the Cowboys moneyline (1st half) at a 72% probability. Rookie Sam Howell will bring a LOT of variance for the Commanders as a reckless gunslinger in college but I'd mostly prepare for Dallas to sit starters in the second half when they realize the Eagles have locked up the bye.

• LA Rams @ Seattle - The Seahawks need this win to keep their faint playoff hopes alive (they get in if they win and Detroit beats Green Bay on Sunday Night Football). But the top probability is the "they might blow this" Seahawks +3.5 at a 78.2% probability. You also have a Seahawks +0.5 (1st quarter) in second at a 71.4% probability followed by under 48.5 points at a 69.4% probability. Note: You don't see the Seahawks win up top here despite no motivation for the Rams. The Rams playing spoiler is in play even if there is a lean towards a Seattle win.

• LA Chargers @ Denver - Broncos +3.5 leads the way at a 70.7% probability so it seems unwise to expect full effort from a Chargers team that has been playing to secure their playoff seeding to face the AFC South winner. The top markets are bleh; Broncos +3 (1st half) at a 70.5% probability and the game scoring under 46.5 points is right behind at a 70.4% probability. Feels like a dud but maybe there's some hope for a shootout based on that last market.

• Arizona @ San Francisco - It's Niners dominance with a Niners win at an 88.7% probability, Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 79.2% probability, and Niners moneyline (1st quarter) at a 75.9% probability. Expect nothing else; journeyman David Blough looked average for Arizona last week against a bad Atlanta D. He won't be passable against a typically dominant Niners one playing for homefield advantage the first two rounds.

• Detroit @ Green Bay - This game's markets could be heavily affected if the Seahawks lose since that would make this game "win and you're in" for both sides. That said, the markets still currently reflect some potential for the Lions to play spoiler. Packers +3.5 is the most probable at a 75.9% probability followed by over 41.5 points at a 70.4% probability and Lions +10.5 at a 68% probability. The Lions should hang around no matter their motivation but I wouldn't hate taking them to win if you sense the Seahawks on the cusp of losing or, hell, even if they win. The Packers have been dying to be bad all season long, including against these very Lions before.

My New Year's resolution is to not waste your time with international hoops odds — my apologies to Sopron Basket for denying them their most probable award for the week — you can't bet on so let's focus on the National Championship game.Georgia is a MASSIVE favorite against TCU and, frankly, I don't see TCU doing this again after they barely survived the Probability Gods down the home stretch versus Michigan. A Georgia win is the most probable at a jarringly high for a National Championship game 79.8% probability followed by Georgia dominance narrative bets Georgia moneyline (1st half) at a 75.1% probability and Georgia moneyline (1st quarter) at a 62.7% probability. TCU will be lucky to hang around based on TCU +10.5 (1st half) clocking in at #4 with a 61.9% probability. There may be a slow start for Georgia based upon their under 8.5 points (1st quarter) at a 59.9% probability but a TCU upset would be monumental based upon all these markets.The NBA's top five: Celtics win at an 86.1% probability, Celtics moneyline (1st half) at a 74.9% probability, Kings win at a 74% probability, Mavs win at a 71.3% probability (my son's namesake Luka Doncic is absolutely crushing), and Kings moneyline (1st half) at a 69% probability.UFC seems gross based on the fighters but I'll be damned if I don't give our Probly list the most I can; a Mateusz Rebecki win is tops at an 84.1% probability, then an Umar Nurmagomedov win at a 81.4% probability, Allan Nascimento winning at a 77.2% probability, and Javid Basharat winning at a 75.1% probability.

We survived the first Probly email of 2023, hooray! Things are progressing along development-wise so stay tuned for good news there in the coming weeks.Strap in for an interesting Week 18 and I'll see you guys next week! Good luck!