🏈 +15u The Last Two Weeks...Let's Do It For NFL Week 16

Christmas season is afoot but, as your family will be loathe to know, there is A LOT of sports going on this weekend. So I won’t blame you if you want to hit bets all weekend and, in fact, I’ll even enable you by boosting our promo code FIRST to 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe. That means you can get one month of pre-game data for $9.99/month or live in-game data for $24.99/month, and it gets EVEN CHEAPER if you buy a year. We could use the support here with some big bills coming up in January so if you’ve been waiting to take the leap, now’s the time to cash in on your gifts from Santa.

Conveniently, it’s been a hell of a run for video content with +15u since I started tracking every bet I post on video on 12/7 so if you want to just take more freebies, our NFL Week 16 Best Bets video is below. Otherwise, I’ll highlight some more bets where applicable as we go through the Most Probable NFL Week 16 markets and then the Probly product update. Let’s get to it with your Probly Email for December 22nd, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 16

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Christmas Miracles

After a hugely disappointing Monday Night Football trip to Seattle, the Eagles are on a skid. But if they fail this week, it’ll be a cataclysmic disaster.

This week, an Eagles win clocks in on top of the list with an 86% probability they stick it to the Giants at home on Christmas Day. With NFL games on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, there is no dearth of football this weekend to distract you from the joys of family.

Now let’s get into the game-by-game breakdown of Most Probable events along with any additional +EV bets we see along the way. You can also look at all this info for yourself at Probly.com/search, just filter by NFL and you’ll see each game and its currently available markets!

• Cincinnati (-2.5) at Pittsburgh (38 O/U) — Top five most probable: Steelers +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 61% probability, Joe Mixon under 3.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Jaylen Warren under 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Steelers +4.5 at a 59% probability, and Diontae Johnson over 3.5 receptions at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: A lot of this seemingly reflects a low ball movement, slog of a game which is perhaps not a surprise given the total, backup QBs starting, and classic AFC North vibes. There is an Under 39 at a 57% probability that is technically a “high bar” over/under just outside the top five most probable. But there’s really nothing in the betting markets that says there’s shootout potential to be found in a game that seems most likely to be a tedious Bengals win.

• Buffalo (-12.5) at LA Chargers (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bills win at an 84% probability, Bills moneyline (1st quarter) at a 68% probability, Austin Ekeler under 0.5 TDs at a 63% probability, Under 46.5 at a 59% probability, and Over 20.5 (1st half) at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It does seem like there’s a reasonable expectation of some scoring here with the first half Over 20.5 and the high bar over/under of Under 46.5. The Chargers seem rudderless with Justin Herbert out for the year and Keenan Allen staying out for this one with the season now over but perhaps they get going for their new interim coach Giff Smith. I’d still err on the side of thinking the Chargers are more tank motivated here with that Austin Ekeler TD heavily skewing under but it’s possible the Bills easily make this a 2+ touchdown game.

• Washington (+3) at NY Jets (37 O/U) — Top five most probable: Xavier Gipson under 0.5 TDs at an 84% probability, Commanders +5.5 at a 61% probability, Commanders +2.5 (1st quarter) at a 61% probability, Over 34.5 at a 59% probability, and Garrett Wilson under 5.5 receptions at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: I’m still tempted by Jets offensive players for DFS given how much of disaster this Washington defense is. But that low bar over/under of Over 34.5 and the fact that it’s now 4th stringer Trevor Siemian starting for the Jets really make it tough. On the plus side, Commanders +5.5 is a bit of a hedge on the market’s +3 line. The Jets may produce a little while the Commanders stay within one score but it does seem like the Jets should still produce while the undertargeted Garrett Wilson continues to seethe.

• Indianapolis (+2.5) at Atlanta (45 O/U) — Top five most probable: Van Jefferson under 0.5 TDs at an 85% probability, Falcons +4.5 at a 64% probability, Van Jefferson over 0.5 receptions at a 62% probability, Taylor Heinicke under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, and Over 7 (1st quarter) at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: Nothing here screams shootout despite that decently lofty 45-point total by the primary markets. I’m shocked to see any Van Jefferson props, but I guess if you’ve got him in your “Guys who occasionally get a catch” league, he could be worth a start. Falcons +4.5 is a pretty interesting hedge, saying that there is a fairly good probability of the Falcons losing via last minute field goal. These teams should be able to move the ball to some extent, including Taylor Heinicke throwing a TD or two…but I still wouldn’t mind a Colts moneyline with that alternate Falcons line and Arthur Smith flailing his way to a job loss.

• Cleveland (-2.5) at Houston (40.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Case Keenum under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at a 90% probability, Browns +3.5 at a 63% probability, Texans +5 at a 61% probability, Browns +2.5 at a 61% probability, and Browns +1.5 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: Well, it does seem like it’ll be a competitive game between…CASE KEENUM AND JOE FLACCO? Listen, I know Joe Flacco has played fairly well as the fill-in for the fill-in for the fill-in for a potentially playoff bound Cleveland but this is a disaster on paper. That said, it does seem likely to be a competitive disaster with some real question as to who wins this one. So maybe it’ll be fun relatively speaking even if it is mostly defensive/aged QB-minded.

• Detroit (-3) at Minnesota (47.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Vikings +4.5 (1st half) at a 64% probability, Vikings +4 (1st half) at a 62% probability, Amon-Ra St. Brown under 0.5 TDs at a 60% probability, Jordan Addison under 4.5 receptions at a 59% probability, and Lions -1 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: It does seem like we are cruising towards another competitive game with the Vikings likely to keep the game within one score in the first half with the Lions -1 line a hedge on them just escaping with a win. No high bar over/under does seem to indiate that we should expect the game more on the under side than the over but there’s still room for production given that solid 47.5 market line. The expectation seems to be Jordan Addison coming back to Earth — perhaps due to either Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson rising or Nick Mullens cratering — but besides that it seems like a game to go down to the wire.

• Green Bay (-4.5) at Carolina (37.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Miles Sanders under 0.5 TDs at a 78% probability, Packers win at a 68% probability, Packers +0.5 (1st half) at a 66% probability, Tommy Tremble over 1.5 receptions at a 61% probability, and Panthers +7.5 at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: These markets really seem to favor the Packers with the alternate Panthers +7.5 line showing a total lack of confidence in the Panthers by the end of it all at home. That said, the +0.5 (1st half) line does show they may be a slow start, as they have many times this year. If that’s the case, a very popular in DFS Chuba Hubbard may be able to get there in a competitive game script with Miles Sanders mostly shunted deeply down the depth chart.

• Seattle (-3) at Tennessee (41.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Seahawks +2.5 (1st half) at a 62% probability, Seahawks +1.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability, Seahawks +1.5 at a 60% probability, DeAndre Hopkins over 4.5 receptions at a 59% probability, and Titans +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: The hedge on Seattle -3 is interesting, giving a little bit of hope for a Titans upset at home after they came back down to Earth last week in OT. The market lean that the game stays safely within field goal range throughout is not a great sign for outlier offense in this game, though. The Titans win ugly with the occasional big play — perhaps a good sign for DeAndre Hopkins with his over — so there’s not a lot to love for Seattle coming off their big upset of Philly.

• Jacksonville (+2.5) at Tampa Bay (41.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Luke Farrell under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Evan Engram under 0.5 TDs at a 72% probability, Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 (1st half) at a 64% probability, Over 38 at a 60% probability, and Jaguars +5 at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: This looks like another situation where the Jaguars are at risk of blowing this one while their tight ends apparently find it very difficult to score with two of their TD unders in the top five. The Jags don’t seem like they should be blown out but these are not favorable spreads to see. Maybe a sign Trevor Lawrence doesn’t clear concussion protocol and we possibly get a CJ Beathard start?

• Arizona (+4.5) at Chicago (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Roschon Johnson under 0.5 TDs at a 72% probability, Kyler Murray under 1.5 passing TDs at a 65% probability, Cole Kmet under 4.5 receptions at a 62% probability, Justin Fields under 1.5 passing TDs at a 59% probability, and Over 7 (1st quarter) at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like both Kyler Murray and Justin Fields have similar outlooks for producing through the air. With Justin Fields expected to be the DFS play du jour against a brutal Cardinals defense, this is not exactly a ringing endorsement for his upside (even though it is better than seeing under 0.5 passing TDs) as chalk. The one good sign? There is an Under 44.5 at a 57% probability so there’s some hoops of a shootout that could pay off Fields and Murray in a game where both teams would be better off tanking for NFL Draft positioning.

• Dallas (+1.5) at Miami (50 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jalen Tolbert under 0.5 TDs at an 86% probability, Cowboys +4 at a 61% probability, Cowboys +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 57% probability, Dolphins +1.5 at a 56% probability, and Jason Sanders over 6.5 kicking points at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: It doesn’t seem like there’s a strong lean for any outcome here, besides some stops for the Cowboys pressing Jason Sanders into action. We have a hedge on the Cowboys’ market +1.5, a hedge on the Dolphins' market -1.5…it kind of seems like the betting markets throwing their hands up in defeat. With how poorly the Cowboys played last week versus Buffalo, it’s hard to know whether that was a sign of things to come or a blip on a run to the Super Bowl. This is our great hope for the most fun game of the weekend so let’s hope both sides bring it.

• New England (+7) at Denver (34 O/U) — Top five most probable: DeVante Parker under 0.5 TDs at an 81% probability, Broncos win at a 71% probability, Russell Wilson under 0.5 INTs at a 62% probability, Javonte Williams under 0.5 TDs at a 62% probability, and Under 20 (1st half) at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: There doesn’t seem like much hope for the Patriots fans as the team heads to Mile High against the middling Broncos. Outside the top 5 is a Patriots +9 hedge at a 61% probability (and a 1.4 PROBLY Score at -150 odds), meaning there’s a chance it gets even worse than that one TD loss. An ugly Sunday Night Football win for Denver may be the sign to call it a night early to spend time with family on Christmas Eve.

• Las Vegas (+10.5) at Kansas City (41 O/U) — Top five most probable: Patrick Mahomes under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at an 83% probability, Chiefs win at an 81% probability, Davante Adams under 0.5 TDs at a 70% probability, Under 44 at a 59% probability, Raiders +9.5 (1st half) at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like it should get ugly early here for Vegas after they gave their own beatdown to the Chargers in their last game. A high bar over/under also indicates we could see more scoring, perhaps on the Chiefs’ side as they cruise to an easy win while the Raiders still somehow arrive at their normal output. Either way, a statement game could be afoot for Mahomes and the gang. 

• NY Giants (+13.5) at Philadelphia (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Eagles -9.5 at a 61% probability, Eagles -10 at a 59% probability, Jalen Hurts under 0.5 INTs at a 59% probability, Giants +15.5 at a 59% probability, and Kenneth Gainwell under 1.5 receptions at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: After what happened to the Eagles on Monday Night Football (as well as the previous two weeks against Dallas and San Francisco), this seems like it has to be an absolute beatdown of the Giants to reasset dominance. The Eagles are still in position to win the NFC East and the Giants, despite some ziti-fueled competition from fellow paisan Tommy DeVito, are not a good team. If this is anything short of boat race, it’s a shocker. Also: Maybe a good AJ Brown get well spot with Giants playing man at a high 34% rate.

• Baltimore (+5.5) at San Francisco (48 O/U) — Top five most probable: Rashod Bateman under 0.5 TDs at an 80% probability, Zay Flowers under 0.5 TDs at a 74% probability, Niners win at a 68% probability, Gus Edwards over 0.5 receptions at a 62% probability, Baltimore Ravens +6 (1st half) at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: This should be a marquee game that sets viewership highs on Christmas night Monday Night Football with the two current #1 seeds in each conference. But this really does not look great for Baltimore. Unders on TDs for two of Lamar Jackson’s top pass catchers, an over on receptions for his mostly non-pass catching RB that could indicate a trailing game script. The one good sign is that there is an Under 50.5 line just outside the top five at a 59% probability so maybe we can see this game crest towards the over. It seems hard to expect the Ravens to win with all this piled up but here’s hoping they give it the ol’ college try.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are. If you’re a paid member, simply sort by Most Profitable to filter out all PROBLY Scores under zero.
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

We remain on the cusp of submitting the App Store version of the Probly app (which you can preview similarly by just installing the app from Safari on your iPhone…Probly is a Progressive Web App, which means that the website version functions ), which is the big thing we need now. The hope for discovery on there leading to more paying customers is key for us as we face some big bills coming due in January, though we’ll see how long the approval process goes with the holidays.

The main takeaways of the process to submit: On the tech side, it’s actually more complicated to turn a PWA into an App Store app than it seems, where the assumption is you just put a Swift code wrapper around it and you’re good to go. Because Probly uses Stripe as our payment processor, it required a complete reworking to be App Store compliant for the in-app purchasing. So that’s a pain that feels like it should be more easily solved — like why doesn’t Stripe build that in?

On my side, the amount that goes into App Store optimization was also a pain. I lost access to Photoshop this week since I was on my old employer’s account and, when Photoshop expires, it seemingly memory leaks until it’s using legit 11GB of memory just by being open. So I had to re-do our App Store images in Canva and they now look like this:

It’ll be split into six pieces when we hit the App Store to fit their carousel; act surprised when you see it. I also had to do a 4,000 character writeup for the App Store listing to try to capture SEO, including various phraseology to attempt to compete with a couple of download leaders in the prop betting space that I, personally, do not think have good products that actually help people win.

That’s probably been our biggest learning lesson amidst the last month of trying to find product market fit and get our first paying subscribers in: Probly is a challenger brand. If you’re not familiar what that means, it basically would be like a Casper bed or Warby Parker glasses…something that changes how things are done within an industry, at least as it relates to mass markets (obviously Expected Value betting as a concept has existed in some form since betting markets first existed).

As I’ve been in the weeds creating daily content while also researching competitors or comparable parts of the space, it’s been genuinely alarming to see how many things are pushed out there that don’t help bettors. The fact that we are a profitability-focused product with real, back-tested results puts us in a minority in a space that feels largely filled with sleight of hand.

You have YouTube videos where the creators open every video either laughing off or spending the first five minutes apologizing for their picks not hitting for the umpteenth time (and it’s getting even uglier on Twitter with guys outright lying about results or calling everything a “lock” or “GOAT play”). You have apps that show people ten games of data or something as banal as “How many rebounds Luka Doncic gets in games where Kyrie Irving doesn’t play” as though that’s something sportsbooks don’t know — let alone something with any sort of edge to win a bet. You have pick vendors on social media showing slips of the one parlay they hit out of 10 or the one long-shot bet they hit amidst a card of bets with bad juice on them.

Meanwhile, Probly is here (or even our data partners at OddsJam or my friends at Stokastic/OddsShopper) with the literal cure for the cancer that is losing bets and it is a STRUGGLE to get people to buy in. With every video, I feel myself trying to shake the person watching as if to say “Stop thinking you can out-research the most efficient, lucrative markets in the world” as they use products or picks made by people with zero domain expertise on what it means to be a profitable bettor. It really does feel like skiing uphill sometimes, no matter how much I track and show results.

Ultimately, all I can do is continue to push on my end as well as my CTO Edgar on the tech end and hope we hit that tipping point soon. I have never had more faith in a product, particularly one I’ve had a hand in building, and its ability to get the desired results for our customers. The results for us as a company? Hopefully awaiting in Santa’s bag.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

There we have it, another one in the books. You know what I am legally obligated to say here: Go to Probly.com/subscribe and use promo code FIRST to get 50% off on ANY package. We sweetened it from 40% since, frankly, the potential for more sales is way more important than a 10% discount difference at this stage so take advantage of it while you can.

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. I’ll be on the grind here with Best Bet videos on the @ProblyApp YouTube, TikTok and IG so come on by and say hi whenever you please. I hope you all have a great Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, or just a nice couple days off, whatever that may entail. Maybe place some bets? Idk idk. Happy holidays and good luck!